Uncertainty and Concern About the Future: Israel Grapples with the Impact of Protracted Conflict
Three years after the October 7 attack, Israeli society is marked by deep uncertainty, declining confidence in the future, and growing concern over national security, social cohesion, and the country’s political direction, according to a new study conducted by Dr. Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute and Dr. Gayil Talshir of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
The survey found that 36% of Israelis are pessimistic about the country’s future, compared with 33% who express clear optimism. Both figures have declined compared with previous years, suggesting that a growing share of the population is uncertain about the direction in which the country is heading.
The findings also highlight a major crisis of confidence regarding the future of the next generation. Fewer than one in four Israelis believe their children will live in a better reality. Fewer than half of the population believe Israel is safer today than it was before October 7 and the outbreak of the war, while nearly one-third consider the country less safe.
Social cohesion remains another central concern. More than half of Israelis, both Jewish and Arab, believe the war has deepened divisions within Israeli society. Only about a quarter think the war has strengthened national unity. The study points to a continued increase in perceptions of social division compared with the previous two years.
The survey also found that approximately 20% of Israelis are considering leaving the country in light of the current security and social situation. Fewer than two-thirds say they are not considering emigration.
Regarding the war’s stated objectives, most Israelis believe that the goals set by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the beginning of the conflict, described as achieving “total victory,” have not been met. Fewer than 20% believe these objectives have been achieved to a large extent or in full.
The public continues to identify those responsible for the failures that enabled Hamas’s October 7 attack. Approximately half of Israelis place primary responsibility on the Israeli government, while around one-third hold the country’s security establishment responsible.
Looking ahead, Israelis identify two major priorities for the next government: restoring security and preventing another attack comparable to October 7, and reducing the cost of living.
The findings also point to a clear political challenge for Netanyahu. Only about one-third of Israelis want him to serve as the next prime minister. Among the roughly two-thirds who favor another candidate, approximately half support Gadi Eisenkot, while the remainder are divided between Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.
The study was conducted by Dr. Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute and Dr. Gayil Talshir of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem on October 5–6, 2026. The sample consisted of 2,437 respondents, all of whom were Israeli citizens.
Caroline Haïat
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